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Analysts caution against expectations of China abandoning its friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite urging from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for China to play a more active role in resolving the Ukraine war, it is highly unlikely that China will impose sanctions on Russia or join the United States and Europe in economic sanctions against Moscow.
As Director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, Ding Chun, asserts, China’s stance as a neutral party in Ukraine has never led to condemning Russia’s invasion.
The United States recognizes China as a key player, acknowledging that Moscow’s ability to sustain its war effort relies heavily on Beijing’s support.
China’s emergence from its Covid-induced isolation
With Beijing holding significant leverage to influence Moscow’s decisions, it is no surprise that Paris will prioritize China’s support for Russia during the discussions. Despite the optics of President Xi’s visit and the warm reception, the talks will undoubtedly be far from straightforward.
President Xi’s European visit marks China’s emergence from its Covid-induced isolation. This trip follows French President Macron’s state visit to China in April 2023, during which he expressed his hopes that Xi Jinping would help bring Russia to its senses regarding Ukraine.
Macron’s comments drew mixed reactions, earning praise in Beijing but exasperating European allies concerned about being dragged into a China-United States conflict over Taiwan.
While Macron and von der Leyen aim to focus on Ukraine, President Xi will undoubtedly push back against the European Union’s investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China.
These investigations span various sectors of China’s industrial output, from solar panels to electric vehicle subsidies and procurement in the medical devices sector. China views these moves as protectionism and seeks to address these concerns during the discussions.
As President Xi concludes his European trip, Russia’s President Putin is expected to visit China in May, further solidifying their close ties.
China expanded its economic presence in Europe
The Mercator Institute’s Abigael Vasselier highlights the need for European leaders to communicate to China the increased price it must pay for its growing support of Russia’s war efforts.
Looking beyond France, President Xi’s itinerary includes visits to Serbia and Hungary. The visit to Belgrade coincides with the anniversary of the 1999 US bombing of the Chinese embassy, providing an opportunity for President Xi to send a pointed anti-Western message.
China has made substantial investments in expanding its economic presence in central and eastern Europe, including significant projects in Hungary and Serbia, such as battery and electric vehicle manufacturing plants and mining operations.
In Budapest, President Xi will meet with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his nationalist stance and opposition to the EU’s official position on Russia. Orban’s “Eastern opening” foreign policy, seeking closer economic ties with China, Russia, and other Asian countries, has attracted substantial Chinese projects to Hungary.
While some may see Orban’s vision of a “sovereignist world” as a departure from traditional ideological frameworks, others caution that the global economy should be organized along the lines of mutual benefit.
As Xi Jinping’s European journey unfolds, the complexities of diplomacy become ever more apparent. The delicate dance between political alliances, economic interests, and international conflicts shapes the narrative of this visit and sets the stage for the intricate relationships between China, Europe, and Russia.
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